Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 19.919465 21.595582 23.401663 25.501843 27.888778 30.531436 33.698226
2025-09-14 17.246656 19.549929 22.203177 25.523051 29.620121 34.585265 41.176992
2025-09-21 15.308367 17.930963 21.107193 25.315437 30.869787 38.143484 48.743383
2025-09-28 14.365817 17.312767 21.043092 26.250259 33.574913 43.933030 60.578814
2025-10-05 13.216067 16.262680 20.247772 26.036591 34.598738 47.495424 70.053620
2025-10-12 12.329147 15.442778 19.632064 25.934412 35.688892 51.275294 80.906183
2025-10-19 11.717501 14.920954 19.346909 26.232801 37.377251 56.288053 95.590167
2025-10-26 11.048948 14.254485 18.777981 26.010273 38.158008 59.862185 108.739727
2025-11-02 10.462568 13.653604 18.241673 25.759179 38.822889 63.326313 123.055680
2025-11-09 10.013286 13.213814 17.900617 25.769139 39.922156 67.847378 142.065747
2025-11-16 9.558596 12.732768 17.453688 25.546880 40.549157 71.527046 160.846242
2025-11-23 9.173118 12.328730 17.092154 25.424887 41.335442 75.730450 183.825890
2025-11-30 8.792219 11.917892 16.703800 25.241870 42.028459 80.043955 211.012614
2025-12-07 8.465596 11.572244 16.396867 25.175669 42.959701 85.248816 246.570417
2025-12-14 8.132737 11.198043 16.017057 24.938174 43.496539 89.632505 283.785876
2025-12-21 8.037183 11.189167 16.238162 25.838401 46.665266 102.338614 380.902937
2025-12-28 7.751616 10.860988 15.896567 25.624051 47.267656 107.801019 448.305022
2026-01-04 7.506435 10.585140 15.626246 25.522039 48.120922 114.418130 540.249495
2026-01-11 7.341810 10.431453 15.556745 25.812634 49.985845 125.266467 704.847036
2026-01-18 7.109573 10.154977 15.253293 25.594932 50.531308 131.703897 855.815019
2026-01-25 6.888412 9.887025 14.949586 25.349520 50.969858 138.009561 1044.335706
2026-02-01 6.717955 9.696337 14.773917 25.359197 52.102257 147.768062 1372.430983
2026-02-08 6.525989 9.461156 14.504063 25.142046 52.575898 155.038945 1745.673088